Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and NAC Breda meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Ajax (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark De Toekomst. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong Ajax are significantly better at Sportpark De Toekomst than their overall form suggests.
NAC Breda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
NAC Breda away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Jong Ajax have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with NAC Breda managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong Ajax and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Jong Ajax half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 71% and NAC Breda 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 67% | NAC Breda 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.46 xG and NAC Breda 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.954 / defence 0.947 | NAC Breda attack 1.264 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. NAC Breda have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Jong Ajax games / 66 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 40%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | NAC Breda 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 30% | NAC Breda 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Jong Ajax 1.46 / NAC Breda 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.954 / def 0.947 | NAC Breda attack 1.264 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.64
NAC Breda xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Jong Ajax 0 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 33% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jong Ajax and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Ajax 3W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (1.26x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.68
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.09
1.64
NAC Breda xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
6%
15.74
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.64 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 19D 28L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
NAC Breda's form line: 29W 12D 25L from 66 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.50 for NAC Breda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 1.50 PPG from 32 outings (13W 9D 10L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 14W 4D 14L from 32 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.73 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 73%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
NAC Breda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 19W 19D 28L in their last 66 games (1.15 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 29W 12D 25L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.50 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 2-6 on 13 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, NAC Breda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Jong Ajax 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and NAC Breda?
Jong Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Jong Ajax, 72% for NAC Breda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Jong Ajax and 75% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Jong Ajax's games and 72% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Jong Ajax's matches and 75% of NAC Breda's.
Do Jong Ajax and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Jong Ajax 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong Ajax 0-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.46 xG and NAC Breda 1.64 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jong Ajax fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against NAC Breda attack 1.26 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 33% | Draw 27% | NAC Breda 40%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 67%, NAC Breda 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG, NAC Breda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.