Dordrecht 2-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and Telstar meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion.
Telstar have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Dordrecht's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for Telstar and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 2–0 with Dordrecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Telstar half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 58% versus Telstar 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 59% | Telstar 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 2.01 xG and Telstar 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.115 / defence 0.810 | Telstar attack 0.868 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Data: 66 Dordrecht games / 66 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 60% | Draw 24% | Telstar 16%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Telstar 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dordrecht 50% | Telstar 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 60% | Draw 24% | Telstar 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Dordrecht 2.01 / Telstar 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.115 / def 0.810 | Telstar attack 0.868 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Telstar xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Telstar kick off?
Dordrecht vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 Telstar.
Where is Dordrecht vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Telstar part of?
Dordrecht vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 60% chance of winning, Telstar a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dordrecht and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Telstar?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 2 | Telstar 2W.
What form are Dordrecht and Telstar in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Telstar (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.87x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.16
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.97
0.96
Telstar xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
47.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.96 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 18D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.17 PPG from 66 outings (20W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.17 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Dordrecht's home form reads 14W 9D 10L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (8W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.03 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Telstar in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 22W 18D 26L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Telstar have gone 20W 17D 29L in their last 66 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Telstar away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.55 PPG; Telstar away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Dordrecht
2
Draws
3
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 3, Telstar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Telstar 5-0 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 48%, Telstar 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dordrecht) and 46% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Telstar in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 46% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dordrecht's recent games and 46% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and Telstar tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Telstar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Telstar 2-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 2.01 xG and Telstar 0.96 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Telstar landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Telstar attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 60% | Draw 24% | Telstar 16%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 59%, Telstar 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.27 PPG, Telstar 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.