Groningen 0-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Emmen at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Emmen encounter.

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Full Analysis

Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie (matchday 10). Kick-off: Monday 23 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Groningen have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Groningen at home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Emmen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Emmen's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2023, ended Groningen 1–1 Emmen — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 50% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Emmen 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Groningen surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Emmen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.25 xG and Emmen 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.824 / defence 0.991 | Emmen attack 1.102 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.363. Data: built from Groningen's last 10 games and Emmen's last 10.

Result probabilities: Groningen 32% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 3.15 | Draw 3.88 | Emmen 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Groningen's last 10 home games and Emmen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Groningen 30% (last 10 home games) | Emmen 70% (last 10 away games).

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