Cambuur 2-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cambuur at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambuur face Groningen.

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Analysis

Groningen make the trip to Cambuur Stadion to face Cambuur in Eerste Divisie (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 11:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cambuur have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Cambuur at home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Groningen's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Groningen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cambuur, 1.10 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Cambuur's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) — Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Groningen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Jan 2023, ended Cambuur 1–0 Groningen — a Cambuur win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 47% versus Groningen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 67% | Groningen 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 2.01 xG and Groningen 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.117 / defence 1.385 | Groningen attack 1.004 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.296. Cambuur's defence rating of 1.385 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Groningen's projected output up. Data: built from Cambuur's last 11 games and Groningen's last 11.

Result probabilities: Cambuur 43% | Draw 23% | Groningen 34%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.34 | Draw 4.37 | Groningen 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.80) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambuur's last 10 home games and Groningen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambuur 60% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 60% (last 10 away games).

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