FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC Volendam at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Vitesse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Vitesse meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kras Stadion.
Vitesse (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in FC Volendam's favour (2.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 1 for Vitesse and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 66% and Vitesse 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 69% | Vitesse 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.89 xG and Vitesse 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.251 / defence 0.855 | Vitesse attack 1.023 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.399. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 FC Volendam games / 21 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 16% | Vitesse 13%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.41 | Draw 6.25 | Vitesse 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.11. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.11 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.89 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 40% | Vitesse 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 71% | Draw 16% | Vitesse 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Volendam 2.89 / Vitesse 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.251 / def 0.855 | Vitesse attack 1.023 / def 1.494 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.89
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Vitesse xG
67%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Vitesse kick off?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
FC Volendam 4 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is FC Volendam vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Vitesse part of?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 71% chance of winning, Vitesse a 13% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Volendam and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 2 | Vitesse 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.25x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.02x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
71%
1.41
16%
6.18
13%
7.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
4.11
1.22
Vitesse xG
1.41
71%
Home win
6.18
16%
Draw
7.81
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
6%
17.94
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
1%
140.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.89 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.22 for Vitesse, a combined total of 4.11.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 11D 27L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 0.78 PPG from 55 outings (10W 13D 32L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for FC Volendam against 0.78 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 11W 2D 14L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 0.78 points per game from 27 outings (6W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.07 scored and 2.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Vitesse in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 17W 11D 27L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 10W 13D 32L in their last 55 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Vitesse away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.30 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 48%, Vitesse 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 70% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 30% of games; Vitesse in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 52% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 70% of Vitesse's.
Do FC Volendam and Vitesse tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Volendam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Vitesse 4-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.89 xG and Vitesse 1.22 xG, a combined 4.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.25 / defence 0.85 against Vitesse attack 1.02 / defence 1.49, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 71% | Draw 16% | Vitesse 13%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 69%, Vitesse 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Vitesse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.13 PPG, Vitesse 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.