FC OSS 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 26 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.20 PPG versus Roda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against FC OSS's 1 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2025, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.
It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Roda in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 44% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Roda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.59 xG and Roda 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.979 / defence 1.083 | Roda attack 1.060 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Data: 45 FC OSS games / 45 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 40% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG FC OSS 1.59 / Roda 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.979 / def 1.083 | Roda attack 1.060 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Roda xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Roda kick off?
FC OSS vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Roda?
FC OSS 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is FC OSS vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Roda part of?
FC OSS vs Roda is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC OSS and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
Record (8 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 5W.
What form are FC OSS and Roda in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.98x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.21
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.12
1.53
Roda xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
22%
4.61
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.69
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.53 for Roda, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS's recent record stands at 11W 15D 19L from 45 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 17L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.07 PPG, Roda on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 10W 4D 8L from 22 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — FC OSS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Roda's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.31 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Roda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Roda in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Roda have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Roda away?
FC OSS's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.55 PPG; Roda away: 1.05 PPG.
Have FC OSS or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Roda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
2
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Roda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 46%, Roda 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC OSS) and 64% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of FC OSS's games and 68% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC OSS's matches and 64% of Roda's.
Do FC OSS and Roda tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Roda in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat FC OSS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC OSS 1-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.59 xG and Roda 1.53 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 24% | Roda 37%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Roda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 1.07 PPG, Roda 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.