FC Eindhoven 0-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 42%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Eindhoven vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jan Louwers Stadion plays host to FC Eindhoven versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Eindhoven (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jan Louwers Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jan Louwers Stadion this season.
Emmen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Emmen have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward FC Eindhoven. A 0.60 PPG lead over Emmen (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours FC Eindhoven, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Emmen — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives FC Eindhoven a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 49% versus Emmen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 47% | Emmen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 0.94 xG and Emmen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.721 / defence 0.849 | Emmen attack 1.022 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.462. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 FC Eindhoven games / 47 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 25% | Draw 33% | Emmen 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Emmen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Eindhoven 30% | Emmen 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 25% | Draw 33% | Emmen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Eindhoven 0.94 / Emmen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.721 / def 0.849 | Emmen attack 1.022 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Emmen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Emmen xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Emmen kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
FC Eindhoven 0 - 3 Emmen.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Emmen part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 25% chance of winning, Emmen a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Emmen?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 3W | Draws 1 | Emmen 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Emmen in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.72) and Emmen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.02x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
25%
4.00
33%
2.99
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.21
1.27
Emmen xG
4.00
25%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.27 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 13W 19D 15L from 47 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 9D 18L across 47 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.47 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 5W 10D 8L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 10W 4D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.45 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 13W 19D 15L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Emmen have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.09 PPG; Emmen away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 6-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
1
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Emmen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Emmen?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 44%, Emmen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FC Eindhoven) and 65% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 39% of games; Emmen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 61% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 65% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Emmen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Emmen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC Eindhoven 0-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 0.94 xG and Emmen 1.27 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Emmen outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.72 / defence 0.85 against Emmen attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 25% | Draw 33% | Emmen 42%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 47%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.23 PPG, Emmen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.