Excelsior 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Excelsior at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Roda meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Roda's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Excelsior, 1 for Roda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 62% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 69% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.45 xG and Roda 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.836 / defence 0.867 | Roda attack 1.063 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.288. Data: 27 Excelsior games / 65 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 43% | Draw 27% | Roda 30%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 43% | Draw 27% | Roda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Excelsior 1.45 / Roda 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.836 / def 0.867 | Roda attack 1.063 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Roda xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Roda kick off?
Excelsior vs Roda kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Roda?
Excelsior 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is Excelsior vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Roda part of?
Excelsior vs Roda is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 43% chance of winning, Roda a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Excelsior and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Excelsior 3W | Draws 1 | Roda 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Roda in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.84) and Roda's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.06x) against Excelsior's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.74
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.64
1.19
Roda xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
13%
7.67
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.19 for Roda, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Excelsior's recent record stands at 23W 18D 24L from 65 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 29W 20D 16L across 65 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Excelsior against 1.65 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 15W 9D 8L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 12D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.54 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Roda in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 23W 18D 24L in their last 65 games (1.34 PPG), while Roda have gone 29W 20D 16L in their last 65 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Roda away?
Excelsior's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.69 PPG; Roda away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 4 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
2
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Roda?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Roda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Excelsior 1-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Roda?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 56%, Roda 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Excelsior) and 50% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Excelsior's games and 66% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Excelsior's recent games and 50% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Roda tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Roda in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 28, as Excelsior and Roda drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.45 xG and Roda 1.19 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.84 / defence 0.87 against Roda attack 1.06 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 43% | Draw 27% | Roda 30%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.34 PPG, Roda 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.