Emmen 4-2 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 41%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Emmen vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Emmen welcome Jong Ajax to De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Emmen have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Emmen's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong Ajax stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Jong Ajax have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Emmen's games and 60% of Jong Ajax's (from Emmen's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 1 for Jong Ajax and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Mar 2024, ended Emmen 4–2 Jong Ajax — a Emmen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Jong Ajax trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 53% versus Jong Ajax 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 59% | Jong Ajax 61%). Note also that Jong Ajax surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.31 xG and Jong Ajax 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.863 / defence 1.000 | Jong Ajax attack 0.997 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.509. Data: built from Emmen's last 51 games and Jong Ajax's last 51.
Result probabilities: Emmen 32% | Draw 27% | Jong Ajax 41%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 3.13 | Draw 3.66 | Jong Ajax 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and Jong Ajax's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 60% (last 10 home games) | Jong Ajax 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 14 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 32% | Draw 27% | Jong Ajax 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Emmen 1.31 / Jong Ajax 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.863 / def 1.000 | Jong Ajax attack 0.997 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Jong Ajax xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax FAQs
What time does Emmen vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 8 November 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Emmen 4 - 2 Jong Ajax.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Ajax part of?
Emmen vs Jong Ajax is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 14) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 32% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and Jong Ajax will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 51 games and Jong Ajax's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
32%
3.13
27%
3.66
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.82
1.50
Jong Ajax xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Emmen and 1.50 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 9D 19L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.02 PPG from 51 outings (12W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 10W 5D 10L across their last 25 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.80 points per game from their last 25 away games (4W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.29 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs Jong Ajax (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 12W 16D 23L in their last 51 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Ajax away?
Emmen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.40 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Emmen's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Emmen
2
Draws
1
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 6, Jong Ajax have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Ajax last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Jong Ajax 4-6 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Ajax?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, Jong Ajax 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Emmen and 72% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs Jong Ajax Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and Jong Ajax matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Emmen's games and 76% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Emmen and Jong Ajax matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Emmen's matches and 72% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Emmen and Jong Ajax matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Emmen's recent matches and 80% of Jong Ajax's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Ajax 4-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Jong Ajax 1.50 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Jong Ajax attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 32% | Draw 27% | Jong Ajax 41%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 59%, Jong Ajax 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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