MVV 0-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours De Graafschap (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as MVV face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 14 as MVV welcome De Graafschap to De Geusselt. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's home record at De Geusselt: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of MVV's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, De Graafschap have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 1 for MVV.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with De Graafschap winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. De Graafschap have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 61% and De Graafschap 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 67% | De Graafschap 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.71 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.089 / defence 1.000 | De Graafschap attack 1.228 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.509. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.228 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 MVV games / 51 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | De Graafschap 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG MVV 1.71 / De Graafschap 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.089 / def 1.000 | De Graafschap attack 1.228 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.85
De Graafschap xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs De Graafschap kick off?
MVV vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV 0 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is MVV vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs De Graafschap part of?
MVV vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 35% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both MVV and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
Record (6 meetings): MVV 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in?
MVV (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about MVV vs De Graafschap?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.09x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.21
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
MVV xG
Total xG
3.56
1.85
De Graafschap xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.38
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
6%
18.15
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are MVV and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for MVV and 1.85 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, MVV have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 18W 13D 20L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 25W 10D 16L from 51 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 6D 10L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.88 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 18W 13D 20L in their last 51 games (1.31 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 25W 10D 16L in their last 51 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or De Graafschap away?
MVV's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.48 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2024, when De Graafschap won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
MVV's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
MVV
4
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 2, De Graafschap have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when MVV 3-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between MVV and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 56%, De Graafschap 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for MVV and 76% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of MVV's games and 72% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of MVV's matches and 76% of De Graafschap's.
Do MVV and De Graafschap tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at MVV's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and De Graafschap finished level at 0-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.71 xG and De Graafschap 1.85 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. MVV fell 1.7 short of their projected output. De Graafschap landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against De Graafschap attack 1.23 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 35% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 41%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 67%, De Graafschap 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.31 PPG, De Graafschap 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.