De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Den Bosch are 0.60 PPG clear of De Graafschap in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 64% versus Den Bosch 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 69% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.347 / defence 0.938 | Den Bosch attack 0.965 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.288. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 62 De Graafschap games / 62 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 59% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 20%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Den Bosch 5.00. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 60% | Den Bosch 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 59% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG De Graafschap 2.12 / Den Bosch 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.347 / def 0.938 | Den Bosch attack 0.965 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Den Bosch xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kick off?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
De Graafschap 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch part of?
De Graafschap vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 59% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both De Graafschap and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 3W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.35x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.96x) against De Graafschap's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.65
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.29
1.17
Den Bosch xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
2%
42.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.17 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 28W 13D 21L from 62 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 27L across 62 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.21 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 19W 4D 7L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 10W 5D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 28W 13D 21L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Den Bosch away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.03 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.17 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
De Graafschap
3
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Den Bosch?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 63%, Den Bosch 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for De Graafschap and 53% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 37% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of De Graafschap's matches and 53% of Den Bosch's.
Do De Graafschap and Den Bosch tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 1-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 1.17 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. De Graafschap fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.35 / defence 0.94 against Den Bosch attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 59% | Draw 22% | Den Bosch 20%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 69%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.56 PPG, Den Bosch 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.