De Graafschap 3-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Vijverberg plays host to De Graafschap versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 29 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
De Graafschap have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's home record at De Vijverberg: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for De Graafschap, 1.10 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — De Graafschap lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 58% versus Almere City FC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | Almere City FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Almere City FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.952 / defence 1.097 | Almere City FC attack 0.958 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.385. Data: 45 De Graafschap games / 7 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 3.12. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG De Graafschap 1.77 / Almere City FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.952 / def 1.097 | Almere City FC attack 0.958 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Almere City FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kick off?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
De Graafschap 3 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC part of?
De Graafschap vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 45% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both De Graafschap and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
De Graafschap's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.96x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
45%
2.21
23%
4.34
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.23
1.46
Almere City FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.46 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 18W 10D 13L from 41 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 24L across 41 games — 0.76 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 13W 3D 4L from 20 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 3W 5D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.95 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 18W 10D 13L in their last 41 games (1.56 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 7W 10D 24L in their last 41 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Almere City FC away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.10 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 1-4 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
From 9 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 55%, Almere City FC 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (De Graafschap) and 50% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Almere City FC in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 35% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of De Graafschap's matches and 50% of Almere City FC's.
Do De Graafschap and Almere City FC tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Almere City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Almere City FC 3-2 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Almere City FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Almere City FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 45% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 32%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Almere City FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.