De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 60%, yet in-form ADO Den Haag provide a compelling counter-argument — this De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
De Graafschap host ADO Den Haag at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour ADO Den Haag — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ADO Den Haag in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 3 for ADO Den Haag and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and ADO Den Haag 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 68% | ADO Den Haag 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.25 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.433 / defence 0.873 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.083 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.295. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 De Graafschap games / 61 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 60% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 19%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | ADO Den Haag 5.26. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form ADO Den Haag (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 60% | ADO Den Haag 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 3 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 60% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG De Graafschap 2.25 / ADO Den Haag 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.433 / def 0.873 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.083 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.22
ADO Den Haag xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 3 February 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
De Graafschap 1 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag part of?
De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 60% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
Record (7 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 3 | ADO Den Haag 3W.
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (1.43) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
60%
1.66
21%
4.84
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.48
1.22
ADO Den Haag xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
11%
9.52
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
2%
49.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.22 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 63 games, going 29W 14D 20L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.63 PPG from 63 outings (28W 19D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: De Graafschap on 1.60 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 19W 4D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — De Graafschap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.86 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 70%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 29W 14D 20L in their last 63 games (1.60 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 28W 19D 16L in their last 63 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or ADO Den Haag away?
De Graafschap's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 2.03 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
ADO Den Haag go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
De Graafschap's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
De Graafschap
3
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 60%, ADO Den Haag at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for De Graafschap and 70% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of De Graafschap's games and 70% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of De Graafschap's matches and 70% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do De Graafschap and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat De Graafschap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat De Graafschap 1-2 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.25 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.22 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.43 / defence 0.87 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 60% | Draw 21% | ADO Den Haag 19%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 68%, ADO Den Haag 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.