Almere City FC vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almere City FC vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Yanmar Stadion plays host to Almere City FC versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 9 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yanmar Stadion, Almere City FC have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Waalwijk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Almere City FC's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Almere City FC 1W, Waalwijk 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Almere City FC half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Almere City FC 62% and Waalwijk 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Almere City FC 72% | Waalwijk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.871 / defence 0.640 | Waalwijk attack 0.804 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.840 / away 1.459. Almere City FC's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Almere City FC games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 54% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 19%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Waalwijk 5.26. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Waalwijk lead the H2H ledger, but Almere City FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 40% | Waalwijk 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 54% | Draw 27% | Waalwijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Almere City FC 1.47 / Waalwijk 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.871 / def 0.640 | Waalwijk attack 0.804 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.840 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Waalwijk xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Waalwijk kick off?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 April 2027 at Yanmar Stadion.
Where is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk part of?
Almere City FC vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 54% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Almere City FC and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Record (6 meetings): Almere City FC 1W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 3W.
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almere City FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.80x) against Almere City FC's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.76
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.22
0.75
Waalwijk xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
4%
22.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Almere City FC and 0.75 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Almere City FC have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 27W 6D 20L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 19W 19D 15L from 53 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Almere City FC against 1.43 for Waalwijk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almere City FC have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (16W 3D 7L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 8W 10D 8L from 26 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almere City FC are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.77 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almere City FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 75%.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 27W 6D 20L in their last 53 games (1.64 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 19W 19D 15L in their last 53 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Waalwijk away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.96 PPG; Waalwijk away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almere City FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Almere City FC
2
Draws
3
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 1, Waalwijk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 50%, Waalwijk 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Almere City FC and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almere City FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Almere City FC's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almere City FC vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Almere City FC's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do Almere City FC and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.