ADO Den Haag 0-3 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours ADO Den Haag (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as ADO Den Haag face Jong AZ.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
ADO Den Haag at Bingoal Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bingoal Stadion.
Jong AZ have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. ADO Den Haag's 2.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, ADO Den Haag have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Jong AZ managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ADO Den Haag and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
ADO Den Haag — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 70% and Jong AZ 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 68% | Jong AZ 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG and Jong AZ 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 1.000 / defence 0.815 | Jong AZ attack 1.038 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.280. Data: 67 ADO Den Haag games / 66 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 58% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 20%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Jong AZ 5.00. The model has a clear lean to ADO Den Haag (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ADO Den Haag are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 50% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 58% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.97 / Jong AZ 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 1.000 / def 0.815 | Jong AZ attack 1.038 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Jong AZ xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag 0 - 3 Jong AZ.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 58% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
Record (7 meetings): ADO Den Haag 5W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 1.00x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (1.04x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 67/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.53
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.05
1.08
Jong AZ xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
3%
35.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.08 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 31W 19D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Jong AZ's form line: 25W 14D 27L from 66 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.35 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 1.82 PPG from 33 outings (17W 9D 7L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 8W 9D 16L from 33 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.70 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 70%.
Last 66 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 31W 19D 16L in their last 66 games (1.70 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 25W 14D 27L in their last 66 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Jong AZ away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 1.82 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ADO Den Haag won 0-4 on 3 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
ADO Den Haag
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-4 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for ADO Den Haag, 73% for Jong AZ — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for ADO Den Haag and 67% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of ADO Den Haag's games and 73% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 67% of Jong AZ's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Jong AZ tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 0-3 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat ADO Den Haag 0-3 at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.97 xG and Jong AZ 1.08 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 1.00 / defence 0.81 against Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.18, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 58% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 20%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 68%, Jong AZ 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 1.70 PPG, Jong AZ 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.