Venezia 2-3 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sudtirol travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia in Serie B (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Venezia have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sudtirol away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Venezia carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Venezia's games and 60% of Sudtirol's (from Venezia's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 1 for Sudtirol and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2023, ended Venezia 0–1 Sudtirol — a Sudtirol win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sudtirol in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Sudtirol 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 53% | Sudtirol 31%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Venezia surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sudtirol have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Sudtirol surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.78 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.402 / defence 1.026 | Sudtirol attack 0.910 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.133. Venezia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.402 — their 1.78 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Venezia's last 54 games and Sudtirol's last 54.
Result probabilities: Venezia 53% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 21%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 1.87 | Draw 3.96 | Sudtirol 4.68. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Venezia's last 10 home games and Sudtirol's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Venezia 70% (last 10 home games) | Sudtirol 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 53% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Venezia 1.78 / Sudtirol 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.402 / def 1.026 | Sudtirol attack 0.910 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Venezia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Sudtirol xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Sudtirol FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Venezia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Venezia 2 - 3 Sudtirol.
Where is Venezia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Sudtirol part of?
Venezia vs Sudtirol is a Serie B fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 53% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Venezia and Sudtirol will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Venezia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.40) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 54 games and Sudtirol's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.96
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.06
Sudtirol xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
17%
5.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
4%
27.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Sudtirol Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Venezia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Venezia and 1.06 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 23W 13D 19L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Sudtirol's form line: 20W 21D 14L from 55 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.49 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 6D 8L).
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 10W 8D 9L from their last 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.07 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Sudtirol (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Sudtirol Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 23W 13D 19L in their last 55 games (1.49 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 20W 21D 14L in their last 55 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Sudtirol away?
Venezia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.67 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Venezia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2024, when Venezia won Sudtirol 0-3 Venezia.
Venezia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Venezia
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Sudtirol H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Sudtirol?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 3, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Venezia and Sudtirol last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Sudtirol 1-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Sudtirol?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 70%, Sudtirol 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Venezia) and 30% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 44%; Sudtirol in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Sudtirol Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Sudtirol matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Venezia's recent matches and 37% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Venezia and Sudtirol matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Venezia's recent games and 30% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Sudtirol matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Venezia's recent matches and 67% of Sudtirol's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Venezia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Venezia 2-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.78 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.40 / defence 1.03 against Sudtirol attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 53% | Draw 25% | Sudtirol 21%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Sudtirol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 53%, Sudtirol 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.49 PPG, Sudtirol 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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