Palermo 3-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palermo face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pisa travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo in Serie B (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Palermo have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Palermo have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pisa away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.00 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Palermo have won 0, Pisa 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Palermo 1–1 Pisa — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 56% versus Pisa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 44% | Pisa 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Palermo surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.05 xG and Pisa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.965 / defence 1.105 | Pisa attack 0.789 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.127. Pisa's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Palermo's last 54 games and Pisa's last 54.
Result probabilities: Palermo 36% | Draw 32% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.80 | Draw 3.10 | Pisa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Palermo's last 10 home games and Pisa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palermo 60% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 36% | Draw 32% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Palermo 1.05 / Pisa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.965 / def 1.105 | Pisa attack 0.789 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Palermo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pisa xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Pisa kick off?
Palermo vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Palermo 3 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Palermo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Pisa part of?
Palermo vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 36% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Palermo and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Palermo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.96x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 54 games and Pisa's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.04
0.98
Pisa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Palermo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Palermo and 0.98 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 18W 20D 16L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 20D 19L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.37 PPG, Pisa on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 11W 9D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 7W 11D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.15 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Palermo (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Palermo vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 18W 20D 16L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Pisa have gone 15W 20D 19L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Pisa away?
Palermo's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.56 PPG; Pisa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Palermo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Palermo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Palermo
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: Pisa 3-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 48%, Pisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Palermo) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pisa in 41%; Palermo have failed to score in 30% of games; Pisa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Palermo's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Pisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.05 xG and Pisa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Pisa attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 36% | Draw 32% | Pisa 32%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 44%, Pisa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.37 PPG, Pisa 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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