Sampdoria 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Sampdoria take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Cosenza travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Sampdoria. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cosenza — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 0.40 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sampdoria, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 62% versus Cosenza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 49% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.11 xG and Cosenza 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.796 / defence 1.045 | Cosenza attack 0.979 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.124. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Sampdoria games / 61 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 34%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Cosenza 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 40% | Cosenza 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 32% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Sampdoria 1.11 / Cosenza 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.796 / def 1.045 | Cosenza attack 0.979 / def 1.151 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Cosenza xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Cosenza kick off?
Sampdoria vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Sampdoria 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Sampdoria vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Cosenza part of?
Sampdoria vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 32% chance of winning, Cosenza a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sampdoria and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Sampdoria 2W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Cosenza in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (0.80) and Cosenza's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
34%
2.93
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
Cosenza xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.15 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 19W 19D 23L from 61 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 15W 24D 22L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.25 PPG, Cosenza on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 9W 8D 13L from 30 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 8W 11D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sampdoria are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.13 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 19W 19D 23L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 15W 24D 22L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Cosenza away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.17 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sampdoria's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sampdoria
0
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Sampdoria 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Cosenza?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 53%, Cosenza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sampdoria) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 27% of games; Cosenza in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sampdoria's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Cosenza tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sampdoria defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.11 xG and Cosenza 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Cosenza attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 32% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 34%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Sampdoria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 49%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sampdoria win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.