Salernitana 0-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Spezia at Stadio Arechi in Serie B, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salernitana have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Arechi — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spezia — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia's away record: 0W 9D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spezia — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Salernitana have won 1, Spezia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 56% versus Spezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 63% | Spezia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.02 xG and Spezia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.997 / defence 1.226 | Spezia attack 0.829 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.137. Data: 8 Salernitana games / 46 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 30% | Draw 33% | Spezia 37%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Spezia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 60% | Spezia 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 30% | Draw 33% | Spezia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Salernitana 1.02 / Spezia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.997 / def 1.226 | Spezia attack 0.829 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Spezia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Spezia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Spezia kick off?
Salernitana vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Spezia?
Salernitana 0 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Salernitana vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Spezia part of?
Salernitana vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 30% chance of winning, Spezia a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Salernitana and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Spezia?
Record (4 meetings): Salernitana 1W | Draws 2 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Salernitana and Spezia in?
Salernitana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Spezia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Salernitana vs Spezia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (1.00) and Spezia's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
30%
3.31
33%
3.04
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.18
1.15
Spezia xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.15 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana come into this having played 46 games, going 5W 13D 28L for 0.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (13W 21D 12L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salernitana's home form reads 3W 6D 14L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (3W 13D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.04 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Spezia in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 5W 13D 28L in their last 46 games (0.61 PPG), while Spezia have gone 13W 21D 12L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Spezia away?
Spezia's away record (0.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.65 PPG; Spezia away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Spezia go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Salernitana's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Salernitana
2
Draws
3
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Spezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Spezia 2-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Spezia?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 70%, Spezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Salernitana and 52% for Spezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 30% of games; Spezia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Spezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Salernitana's games and 52% of Spezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Salernitana's matches and 52% of Spezia's.
Do Salernitana and Spezia tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Spezia in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Salernitana 0-2 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.02 xG and Spezia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salernitana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Spezia outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Spezia attack 0.83 / defence 0.81, drawn from 8/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 30% | Draw 33% | Spezia 37%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 63%, Spezia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.61. Form held, and they took the win. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.