Salernitana 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salernitana host Modena at Stadio Arechi in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Salernitana's home record at Stadio Arechi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Modena — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Modena have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salernitana at 0.80 PPG versus Modena's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Salernitana have won 0, Modena 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Salernitana in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Modena 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 54% | Modena 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.18 xG and Modena 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.923 / defence 1.135 | Modena attack 0.995 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.199 / away 1.076. Data: 28 Salernitana games / 66 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 60% | Modena 30%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Salernitana 1.18 / Modena 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.923 / def 1.135 | Modena attack 0.995 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.199 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Modena (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Modena kick off?
Salernitana vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Modena?
Salernitana 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Salernitana vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Modena part of?
Salernitana vs Modena is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 33% chance of winning, Modena a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salernitana and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 0W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Salernitana and Modena in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Modena (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.92) and Modena's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.20
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Modena xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.21 for Modena, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana come into this having played 66 games, going 8W 19D 39L for 0.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.24 PPG from 66 outings (17W 31D 18L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salernitana's home form reads 6W 9D 18L across 33 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.09 points per game from 33 outings (6W 18D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.15 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Modena in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 8W 19D 39L in their last 66 games (0.65 PPG), while Modena have gone 17W 31D 18L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.82 PPG; Modena away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Modena runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
0
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Modena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Salernitana 1-0 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Modena?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 67%, Modena 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Salernitana) and 42% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 30% of games; Modena in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Salernitana's games and 61% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Salernitana's recent games and 42% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salernitana and Modena tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Modena in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Modena 1-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.18 xG and Modena 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Modena attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 33% | Draw 31% | Modena 35%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Salernitana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 54%, Modena 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.