Reggiana 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Reggiana take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Reggiana and Bari meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Reggiana's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bari have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Bari have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Reggiana, 1.50 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reggiana, 0 for Bari and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Reggiana — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bari — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 47% versus Bari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Reggiana 36% | Bari 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.90 xG and Bari 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.867 / defence 1.105 | Bari attack 0.847 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.040. Data: 58 Reggiana games / 58 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 36% | Bari 34%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Bari 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Reggiana 40% | Bari 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 30% | Draw 36% | Bari 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Reggiana 0.90 / Bari 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.867 / def 1.105 | Bari attack 0.847 / def 0.852 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bari xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Bari kick off?
Reggiana vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Bari?
Reggiana 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Reggiana vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Bari part of?
Reggiana vs Bari is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 30% chance of winning, Bari a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Reggiana and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Bari?
Record (3 meetings): Reggiana 1W | Draws 2 | Bari 0W.
What form are Reggiana and Bari in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Bari (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.87) and Bari's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.85x) against Reggiana's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.34
36%
2.75
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Reggiana xG
Total xG
1.88
0.97
Bari xG
3.34
30%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 14.9 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.97 for Bari, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana's recent record stands at 16W 23D 19L from 58 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 14W 26D 18L across 58 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Reggiana against 1.17 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggiana have managed 6W 14D 8L from 28 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 4W 12D 12L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.09 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Bari in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 16W 23D 19L in their last 58 games (1.22 PPG), while Bari have gone 14W 26D 18L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Bari away?
Reggiana's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.14 PPG; Bari away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Reggiana or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bari in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Reggiana have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Reggiana
3
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 2, Bari have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Bari 4-1 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Bari?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 50%, Bari 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Reggiana and 39% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 32% of games; Bari in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reggiana's recent matches and 54% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggiana vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Reggiana's recent games and 39% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Bari tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggiana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 21, as Reggiana and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.90 xG and Bari 0.97 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggiana fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Bari attack 0.85 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 30% | Draw 36% | Bari 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 36%, Bari 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.22 PPG, Bari 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.