Pisa 2-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Cosenza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 6W 4D 0L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Pisa's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cosenza's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pisa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Cosenza in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pisa, 2 for Cosenza and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 67% and Cosenza 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 56% | Cosenza 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.48 xG and Cosenza 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.327 / defence 0.828 | Cosenza attack 1.085 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.095. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — their λ of 1.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Pisa games / 52 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 46% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 22%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Cosenza 4.55. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 70% | Cosenza 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 46% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Pisa 1.48 / Cosenza 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.327 / def 0.828 | Cosenza attack 1.085 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Pisa (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cosenza xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cosenza kick off?
Pisa vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Pisa 2 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Pisa vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cosenza part of?
Pisa vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 46% chance of winning, Cosenza a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pisa and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
Record (6 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 2 | Cosenza 2W.
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in?
Pisa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Pisa vs Cosenza?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.33) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.08x) against Pisa's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
46%
2.18
32%
3.14
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.47
0.98
Cosenza xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pisa and 0.98 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 19W 17D 16L from 52 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 15W 21D 16L across 52 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Pisa against 1.27 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 11W 10D 4L from 25 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 8W 10D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.17 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 19W 17D 16L in their last 52 games (1.42 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 15W 21D 16L in their last 52 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cosenza away?
Pisa's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.72 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pisa
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cosenza?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 72%, Cosenza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Pisa) and 24% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 32%; Cosenza in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Pisa's games and 44% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Pisa's recent games and 24% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cosenza tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Cosenza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa and Cosenza finished level at 2-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.48 xG and Cosenza 0.98 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.33 / defence 0.83 against Cosenza attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 46% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 22%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 56%, Cosenza 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.42 PPG, Cosenza 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.