Pisa 1-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pisa take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Cosenza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 2W 4D 4L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pisa, 1 for Cosenza and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 41% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.01 xG and Cosenza 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.043 / defence 1.047 | Cosenza attack 0.846 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Data: 44 Pisa games / 45 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 31% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 31%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Cosenza 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Pisa 80% | Cosenza 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 31% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Pisa 1.01 / Cosenza 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.043 / def 1.047 | Cosenza attack 0.846 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cosenza xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Cosenza kick off?
Pisa vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Pisa 1 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Pisa vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cosenza part of?
Pisa vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 31% chance of winning, Cosenza a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pisa and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
Record (4 meetings): Pisa 2W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Cosenza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.04) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.85x) against Pisa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
38%
2.65
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.01
1.00
Cosenza xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pisa and 1.00 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 13W 16D 15L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 18L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Pisa against 1.05 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 2W 8D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 13W 16D 15L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 10W 16D 18L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cosenza away?
Pisa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.29 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cosenza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pisa
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
From 8 meetings on record, Pisa have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cosenza?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 62%, Cosenza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Pisa's recent matches and 48% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pisa's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cosenza tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.01 xG and Cosenza 1.00 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 31% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 41%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.