Modena 1-3 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Modena take on Venezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Modena and Venezia meet at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Modena's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Modena have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Venezia have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Venezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Modena, 1 for Venezia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 May 2023, ended Modena 0–5 Venezia — a Venezia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Modena — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 52% versus Venezia 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 43% | Venezia 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Modena surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.87 xG and Venezia 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.971 / defence 0.691 | Venezia attack 0.848 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Modena have a tight defence (rating 0.691), which is pulling Venezia's projected output down. Data: built from Modena's last 44 games and Venezia's last 45.
Result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 42% | Venezia 23%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.89 | Draw 2.35 | Venezia 4.37. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS Yes probability 31% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Venezia's lower xG of 0.67 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.53 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Modena 30% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 35% | Draw 42% | Venezia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% (Under 80%) | BTTS Yes 31% (No 69%) | xG Modena 0.87 / Venezia 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.971 / def 0.691 | Venezia attack 0.848 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Venezia xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Venezia FAQs
What time does Modena vs Venezia kick off?
Modena vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Venezia?
Modena 1 - 3 Venezia.
Where is Modena vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Venezia part of?
Modena vs Venezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 35% chance of winning, Venezia a 23% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Modena and Venezia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (69%).
Will Modena vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (80%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Modena's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.85x) against Modena's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 44 games and Venezia's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
42%
2.35
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Modena xG
Total xG
1.53
0.67
Venezia xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.35
42%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.19
69%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 14.4 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 12.5 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Venezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Modena and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Modena and 0.67 for Venezia, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Modena's recent record stands at 16W 12D 16L from 44 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 16L across 44 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Modena against 1.32 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Modena have managed 9W 9D 4L from their last 22 home games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 6W 7D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Modena are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
Modena (Home) vs Venezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Modena vs Venezia Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Venezia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while Venezia have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Venezia away?
Modena's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.64 PPG; Venezia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Modena or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Venezia in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Modena and Venezia, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 10 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Venezia won Venezia 5-0 Modena on 1 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Modena have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
2
Draws
3
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Venezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Venezia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 1, Venezia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Venezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2026: Venezia 0-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 46%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Modena and 41% for Venezia.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Venezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Venezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Modena's recent matches and 54% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Venezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Modena's recent games and 41% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Venezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Modena's recent matches and 59% of Venezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Modena.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Modena 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.87 xG and Venezia 0.67 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 0.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.97 / defence 0.69 against Venezia attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 35% | Draw 42% | Venezia 23%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 43%, Venezia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.36 PPG, Venezia 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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