Palermo 1-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Sudtirol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
Sudtirol have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sudtirol have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Palermo's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Palermo 3W, Sudtirol 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 57% versus Sudtirol 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 53% | Sudtirol 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.83 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.224 / defence 1.078 | Sudtirol attack 1.029 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.186. Data: 72 Palermo games / 72 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Sudtirol 3.85. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 50% | Sudtirol 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Palermo 1.83 / Sudtirol 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.224 / def 1.078 | Sudtirol attack 1.029 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Palermo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Sudtirol xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Sudtirol kick off?
Palermo vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Palermo 1 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Palermo vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Sudtirol part of?
Palermo vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 48% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Palermo and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Record (5 meetings): Palermo 3W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.22x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (1.03x) against Palermo's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.91
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.14
1.32
Sudtirol xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
13%
7.75
4%
23.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Palermo and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Palermo and 1.32 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Palermo come into this having played 72 games, going 27W 19D 26L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.18 PPG from 72 outings (22W 19D 31L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Palermo against 1.18 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Palermo's home form reads 15W 8D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.06 points per game from 36 outings (10W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palermo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.24 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 27W 19D 26L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 22W 19D 31L in their last 72 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Sudtirol away?
Palermo's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.47 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Sudtirol have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Sudtirol?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Sudtirol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Palermo) and 53% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 53% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Palermo's recent games and 53% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Palermo 1-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.83 xG and Sudtirol 1.32 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Palermo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.15, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 48% | Draw 26% | Sudtirol 26%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 53%, Sudtirol 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.39 PPG, Sudtirol 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.