Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 22 as Palermo welcome Juve Stabia to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juve Stabia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palermo 1.10 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Palermo, 0 for Juve Stabia and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Juve Stabia trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 43% versus Juve Stabia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 29% | Juve Stabia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.27 xG and Juve Stabia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.964 / defence 0.810 | Juve Stabia attack 0.982 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.054. Data: 59 Palermo games / 21 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 44% | Draw 35% | Juve Stabia 21%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.27 | Draw 2.86 | Juve Stabia 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Juve Stabia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 44% | Draw 35% | Juve Stabia 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Palermo 1.27 / Juve Stabia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.964 / def 0.810 | Juve Stabia attack 0.982 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Palermo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Palermo vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Palermo 1 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Palermo vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Juve Stabia part of?
Palermo vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 44% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 21% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Palermo and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Juve Stabia?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Palermo and Juve Stabia in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.96x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juve Stabia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
44%
2.30
35%
2.86
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.11
0.84
Juve Stabia xG
2.30
44%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
6%
16.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Palermo and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Palermo and 0.84 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 7W 6D 8L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia's form line: 7W 9D 5L from 21 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.29 PPG, Juve Stabia on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.10 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 7W 6D 8L in their last 21 games (1.29 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Juve Stabia away?
Palermo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.50 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Palermo or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Juve Stabia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palermo's record when hosting Juve Stabia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palermo
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Juve Stabia?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Juve Stabia?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 30%, Juve Stabia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Palermo and 50% for Juve Stabia.
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 30% of games; Juve Stabia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Palermo's recent matches and 60% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Juve Stabia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Juve Stabia 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.27 xG and Juve Stabia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juve Stabia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Juve Stabia attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 44% | Draw 35% | Juve Stabia 21%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 29%, Juve Stabia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.29 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.