Cosenza 3-0 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Lecco meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Cosenza's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lecco have collected 0.20 PPG across their last 5 games: 0W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Cosenza's favour (1.50 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
Lecco — key trading statistics (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cosenza 60% and Lecco 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 60% | Lecco 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.40 xG and Lecco 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.143 / defence 1.102 | Lecco attack 0.736 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.179. Lecco's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Cosenza's last 46 games and Lecco's last 5.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 35% | Lecco 22%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.31 | Draw 2.88 | Lecco 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 50% (last 10 home games) | Lecco 60% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 35% | Lecco 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cosenza 1.40 / Lecco 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.143 / def 1.102 | Lecco attack 0.736 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Lecco xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Lecco FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Lecco kick off?
Cosenza vs Lecco kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Lecco?
Cosenza 3 - 0 Lecco.
Where is Cosenza vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Lecco part of?
Cosenza vs Lecco is a Serie B fixture (matchday 9) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Lecco a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cosenza and Lecco will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cosenza vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Lecco's attack (0.74x) against Cosenza's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 46 games and Lecco's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.31
35%
2.88
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Lecco xG
2.31
43%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
5%
18.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Lecco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.96 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Lecco, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cosenza by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Lecco in 60%.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Lecco
Early Season
Cosenza (Home) vs Lecco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Early Season
Lecco
Early Season
❓ Cosenza vs Lecco Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Lecco in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Lecco have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Cosenza and Lecco, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cosenza
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Lecco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Lecco?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Lecco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Lecco 1-3 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Lecco?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 60%, Lecco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cosenza and 60% for Lecco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lecco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Lecco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Lecco matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cosenza's games and 60% of Lecco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cosenza and Lecco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cosenza's matches and 60% of Lecco's.
Do Cosenza and Lecco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Cosenza's recent matches and 60% of Lecco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cosenza run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Lecco 3-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.40 xG and Lecco 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecco landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.14 / defence 1.10 against Lecco attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 35% | Lecco 22%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 60%, Lecco 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Lecco's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cosenza arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.20. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Lecco managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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