Cosenza 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cosenza host Brescia at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cosenza at 0.80 PPG versus Brescia's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cosenza, 4 for Brescia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brescia in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Brescia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 41% | Brescia 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 0.78 xG and Brescia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.681 / defence 1.138 | Brescia attack 0.814 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.163. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 70 Cosenza games / 70 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 24% | Draw 35% | Brescia 40%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | Brescia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 40% | Brescia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 24% | Draw 35% | Brescia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Cosenza 0.78 / Brescia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.681 / def 1.138 | Brescia attack 0.814 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Brescia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Brescia xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Brescia kick off?
Cosenza vs Brescia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Brescia?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Cosenza vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Brescia part of?
Cosenza vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 24% chance of winning, Brescia a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Cosenza and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Brescia?
Record (9 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 3 | Brescia 4W.
What form are Cosenza and Brescia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
24%
4.11
35%
2.84
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.85
1.08
Brescia xG
4.11
24%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.05
19%
5.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 16.8 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.08 for Brescia, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 26D 27L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 18W 28D 24L from 70 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.10 PPG, Brescia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (9W 13D 13L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 8W 12D 15L from 35 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.14 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 17W 26D 27L in their last 70 games (1.10 PPG), while Brescia have gone 18W 28D 24L in their last 70 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Brescia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.14 PPG; Brescia away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Brescia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cosenza's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cosenza
4
Draws
4
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Brescia?
From 10 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Brescia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 54%, Brescia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cosenza) and 37% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Cosenza's games and 57% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cosenza's recent games and 37% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Brescia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 33, as Cosenza and Brescia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 0.78 xG and Brescia 1.08 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.68 / defence 1.14 against Brescia attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 24% | Draw 35% | Brescia 40%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 41%, Brescia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.10 PPG, Brescia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.