Cittadella 0-3 Bari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cittadella take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cittadella and Bari meet at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 December 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cittadella (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cittadella at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
Bari have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Bari have posted 4W 3D 1L from 8 away outings — 1.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bari half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 40% versus Bari 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 27% | Bari 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.89 xG and Bari 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.772 / defence 0.912 | Bari attack 0.945 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.111. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Cittadella games / 15 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Bari 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cittadella 40% | Bari 62%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Cittadella 0.89 / Bari 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.772 / def 0.912 | Bari attack 0.945 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bari xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Bari kick off?
Cittadella vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 8 December 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Bari?
Cittadella 0 - 3 Bari.
Where is Cittadella vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Bari part of?
Cittadella vs Bari is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 31% chance of winning, Bari a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cittadella and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Bari in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.77) and Bari's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.94x) against Cittadella's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
35%
2.88
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Cittadella xG
Total xG
1.85
0.96
Bari xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 15.1 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.96 for Bari, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cittadella come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 7D 4L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (5W 8D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Cittadella against 1.53 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cittadella's home form reads 2W 4D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 2.00 points per game from 7 outings (4W 2D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.53 PPG overall record — Bari travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cittadella are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari in 60%.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Bari in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Bari have gone 5W 8D 2L in their last 15 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.43 PPG; Bari away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Bari in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bari won 0-3 on 8 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cittadella
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Bari?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Cittadella 3-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Bari see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 43%, Bari 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Cittadella and 29% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cittadella's recent matches and 57% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Cittadella's recent games and 29% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Bari run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cittadella 0-3 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.89 xG and Bari 0.96 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Cittadella fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bari outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 0.91 against Bari attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 27%, Bari 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.27 PPG, Bari 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.