Cesena 0-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cremonese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cesena vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 19 as Cesena welcome Cremonese to Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's home record at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi: 6W 2D 1L from 9 Serie B appearances (2.22 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cesena are significantly better at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cremonese have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cesena 1.40 PPG, Cremonese 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Cesena in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cremonese in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 61% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 50% | Cremonese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.32 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.216 / defence 1.225 | Cremonese attack 1.232 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.054. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.232 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Cesena games / 56 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Cremonese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 67% | Cremonese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Cesena 1.32 / Cremonese 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.216 / def 1.225 | Cremonese attack 1.232 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Cremonese xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Cremonese kick off?
Cesena vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Cremonese?
Cesena 0 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Cesena vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Cremonese part of?
Cesena vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 30% chance of winning, Cremonese a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cesena and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Cremonese in?
Cesena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cesena's attack rating (1.22) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
30%
3.30
28%
3.61
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.91
1.59
Cremonese xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
6%
16.17
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cesena and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cesena and 1.59 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cesena come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 4D 7L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cesena on 1.39 PPG, Cremonese on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cesena's home form reads 6W 2D 1L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Cesena are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cesena are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.33 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 games (1.39 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Cremonese away?
Cesena's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 2.22 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cesena's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cesena
1
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Cremonese?
From 3 meetings on record, Cesena have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Cesena 2-2 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 67%, Cremonese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Cesena and 67% for Cremonese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Cesena's games and 56% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cesena's matches and 67% of Cremonese's.
Do Cesena and Cremonese tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Cesena 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cesena 0-1 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 1.32 xG and Cremonese 1.59 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cesena fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.22 / defence 1.23 against Cremonese attack 1.23 / defence 0.88, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 30% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 42%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 50%, Cremonese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.39 PPG, Cremonese 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.