Carrarese 0-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio dei Marmi plays host to Carrarese versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Carrarese have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrarese have gone 2W 2D 1L this season (5 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio dei Marmi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Carrarese against 1.30 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Carrarese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 36% versus Juve Stabia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 36% | Juve Stabia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.15 xG and Juve Stabia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.878 / defence 0.922 | Juve Stabia attack 0.888 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.075. Data: 11 Carrarese games / 11 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 37% | Juve Stabia 24%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.63 | Draw 2.70 | Juve Stabia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Carrarese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 20% | Juve Stabia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 37% | Juve Stabia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Carrarese 1.15 / Juve Stabia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.878 / def 0.922 | Juve Stabia attack 0.888 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Carrarese vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Carrarese vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Juve Stabia part of?
Carrarese vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 38% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 24% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Carrarese and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Carrarese and Juve Stabia in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Carrarese's attack at 0.88x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.89x) against Carrarese's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
38%
2.60
37%
2.69
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.03
0.88
Juve Stabia xG
2.60
38%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Carrarese and 0.88 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 3L across 11 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Carrarese against 1.45 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 1W 3D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Juve Stabia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Juve Stabia away?
Carrarese's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.60 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Carrarese won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
2
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 1-1 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Carrarese) and 40% (Juve Stabia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Carrarese and 40% for Juve Stabia.
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 40%; Carrarese have failed to score in 40% of games; Juve Stabia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Carrarese's recent matches and 40% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Carrarese's recent games and 40% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese and Juve Stabia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.15 xG and Juve Stabia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Juve Stabia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Juve Stabia attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 38% | Draw 37% | Juve Stabia 24%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 36%, Juve Stabia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.09 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.