Benevento vs Avellino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Benevento at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Avellino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Benevento and Avellino meet at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Benevento (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 2W 3D 1L from 6 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Avellino have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Avellino have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Benevento against 1.50 for Avellino. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 50% versus Avellino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Avellino 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.27 xG and Avellino 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 0.984 / defence 1.059 | Avellino attack 0.896 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Data: 10 Benevento games / 48 Avellino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 31% | Avellino 32%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Avellino 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benevento are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 83% | Avellino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 37% | Draw 31% | Avellino 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Benevento 1.27 / Avellino 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 0.984 / def 1.059 | Avellino attack 0.896 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Benevento (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Avellino xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Avellino kick off?
Benevento vs Avellino is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Avellino part of?
Benevento vs Avellino is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 37% chance of winning, Avellino a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Benevento and Avellino will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Avellino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Avellino in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Avellino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Benevento's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Avellino's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.90x) against Benevento's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
37%
2.72
31%
3.20
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.44
1.17
Avellino xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Benevento and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Benevento and 1.17 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avellino, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Benevento against 1.50 for Avellino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Avellino's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Avellino in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Avellino in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Avellino have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Avellino away?
Benevento's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Avellino away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Benevento or Avellino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Avellino in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Benevento, 75% for Avellino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 25% (Avellino).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Avellino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benevento's games and 75% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Avellino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 25% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Avellino tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Avellino in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.