Bari 1-0 Cesena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bari host Cesena at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bari — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cesena have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cesena's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Serie B this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bari at 1.60 PPG versus Cesena's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Cesena in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 60% and Cesena 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 33% | Cesena 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.58 xG and Cesena 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.038 / defence 1.091 | Cesena attack 0.997 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.105. Cesena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Bari games / 15 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 44% | Draw 30% | Cesena 26%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Cesena 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Bari 70% | Cesena 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cesena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 44% | Draw 30% | Cesena 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Bari 1.58 / Cesena 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.038 / def 1.091 | Cesena attack 0.997 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Bari (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Cesena xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cesena kick off?
Bari vs Cesena kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cesena?
Bari 1 - 0 Cesena.
Where is Bari vs Cesena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cesena part of?
Bari vs Cesena is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cesena?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 44% chance of winning, Cesena a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cesena?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bari and Cesena will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cesena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cesena?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Cesena in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Cesena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bari's attack rating (1.04) and Cesena's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cesena's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
44%
2.30
30%
3.32
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Bari xG
Total xG
2.78
1.20
Cesena xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
5%
18.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cesena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bari and Cesena expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bari and 1.20 for Cesena, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cesena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bari come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 9D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cesena sit at 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.40 PPG, Cesena on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bari's home form reads 2W 5D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Cesena have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cesena's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cesena are on 1.67 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Cesena in 67%.
Defensively: Bari have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Cesena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cesena in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 4W 9D 2L in their last 15 games (1.40 PPG), while Cesena have gone 6W 4D 5L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cesena away?
Bari's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.57 PPG; Cesena away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Bari or Cesena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Cesena in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Cesena runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bari's record when hosting Cesena specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bari
1
Draws
0
Cesena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cesena?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 3, Cesena have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cesena last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Cesena 1-2 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Cesena?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bari at 71%, Cesena at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Bari) and 57% (Cesena).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cesena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cesena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Bari's games and 71% of Cesena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Cesena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Bari's recent games and 57% of Cesena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cesena tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cesena in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Cesena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Cesena 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.58 xG and Cesena 1.20 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cesena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.04 / defence 1.09 against Cesena attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 44% | Draw 30% | Cesena 26%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 33%, Cesena 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cesena's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.40 PPG, Cesena 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.