Avellino 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avellino at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Avellino and Palermo meet at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Avellino's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino's home record at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Palermo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Avellino 0W, Palermo 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Palermo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Avellino half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 48% versus Palermo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 48% | Palermo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.045 / defence 0.969 | Palermo attack 1.141 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.180. Data: 41 Avellino games / 41 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 42% | Draw 25% | Palermo 33%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Palermo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avellino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 40% | Palermo 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 42% | Draw 25% | Palermo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Avellino 1.51 / Palermo 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.045 / def 0.969 | Palermo attack 1.141 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Avellino (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Palermo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Palermo kick off?
Avellino vs Palermo kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Palermo?
Avellino 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Avellino vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Palermo part of?
Avellino vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 42% chance of winning, Palermo a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Avellino and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Avellino 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Avellino and Palermo in?
Avellino (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Avellino's attack rating (1.04) and Palermo's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.14x) against Avellino's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
42%
2.38
25%
3.99
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Palermo xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Avellino and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Avellino and 1.31 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Avellino come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 10D 17L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.93 PPG from 42 outings (23W 12D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Avellino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Avellino's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (7W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palermo's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Avellino are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.62 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Palermo in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Palermo have gone 23W 12D 7L in their last 42 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Palermo away?
Avellino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.67 PPG; Palermo away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Avellino or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Palermo in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Avellino have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Avellino
2
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Palermo?
From 3 meetings on record, Avellino have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Avellino 1-1 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 52%, Palermo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Avellino) and 43% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Avellino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palermo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Avellino's recent matches and 52% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Avellino's recent games and 43% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avellino and Palermo tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Palermo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avellino and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino and Palermo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Palermo attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 42% | Draw 25% | Palermo 33%, with Avellino to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 48%, Palermo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.