Venezia 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Venezia face Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cagliari travel to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to take on Venezia in Serie A (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Venezia stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Venezia have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Venezia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Cagliari have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Venezia) versus 0.90 (Cagliari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Venezia, 1 for Cagliari and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Venezia 1–2 Cagliari — a Cagliari win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 57% versus Cagliari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 67% | Cagliari 52%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Venezia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.22 xG and Cagliari 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.834 / defence 1.252 | Cagliari attack 0.834 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.325. Venezia's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Venezia's last 16 games and Cagliari's last 54.
Result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.02 | Draw 3.81 | Cagliari 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Venezia 50% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Venezia 1.22 / Cagliari 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.834 / def 1.252 | Cagliari attack 0.834 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Cagliari xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Venezia vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Venezia vs Cagliari kick off?
Venezia vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Venezia 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Venezia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Cagliari part of?
Venezia vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 33% chance of winning, Cagliari a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Venezia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.83) and Cagliari's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Venezia's last 16 games and Cagliari's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.81
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.60
1.38
Cagliari xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Venezia vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Venezia and 1.38 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 24W 10D 20L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 26L across 54 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Venezia by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 16W 3D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cagliari's away record stands at 3W 7D 16L across their last 26 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.06 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
Venezia (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Venezia
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Venezia vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Venezia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 11W 17D 26L in their last 54 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Cagliari away?
Venezia's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.96 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won Cagliari 1-4 Venezia.
Venezia's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Venezia
3
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Venezia vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Cagliari?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Venezia have won 2, Cagliari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 65%, Cagliari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Venezia) and 50% (Cagliari). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Venezia vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Venezia and Cagliari matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Venezia's games and 50% of Cagliari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Venezia and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Venezia's matches and 50% of Cagliari's.
Do Venezia and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Venezia's recent matches and 73% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.22 xG and Cagliari 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.25 against Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 33% | Draw 26% | Cagliari 41%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 67%, Cagliari 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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