Genoa 1-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Genoa welcome Napoli to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Napoli have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Genoa's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Genoa, 2 for Napoli and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Napoli in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Napoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Napoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.76 xG and Napoli 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.813 / defence 1.022 | Napoli attack 1.153 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.329. Napoli's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Genoa games / 54 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 18% | Draw 25% | Napoli 57%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Napoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 18% | Draw 25% | Napoli 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Genoa 0.76 / Napoli 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.813 / def 1.022 | Napoli attack 1.153 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Napoli (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Napoli xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Napoli kick off?
Genoa vs Napoli kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Genoa vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Napoli part of?
Genoa vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 18% chance of winning, Napoli a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Genoa and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 2 | Napoli 2W.
What form are Genoa and Napoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Napoli (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.81) and Napoli's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
18%
5.54
25%
3.94
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.32
1.57
Napoli xG
5.54
18%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
4%
26.54
27%
3.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Genoa and 1.57 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 15W 20D 19L from 54 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Napoli, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 14L across 54 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 8W 12D 7L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Napoli's away record stands at 12W 9D 6L across 27 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.46 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Napoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 15W 20D 19L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Napoli have gone 24W 16D 14L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.33 PPG; Napoli away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Napoli runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
6
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Napoli have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 56%, Napoli 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 44% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli in 33%; Genoa have failed to score in 26% of games; Napoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Genoa's recent matches and 44% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 44% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Napoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Napoli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Genoa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.76 xG and Napoli 1.57 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Napoli attack 1.15 / defence 0.71, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 18% | Draw 25% | Napoli 57%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Napoli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Napoli's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.