Udinese 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Bluenergy Stadium to face Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Monday 28 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bologna have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bologna away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 1.10 PPG clear of Udinese in recent Serie A fixtures (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Udinese lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Udinese — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Bologna 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 42% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.919 / defence 1.228 | Bologna attack 0.934 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.114. Data: 71 Udinese games / 71 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 34% | Draw 28% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 40% | Bologna 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 34% | Draw 28% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Udinese 1.20 / Bologna 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.919 / def 1.228 | Bologna attack 0.934 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Bologna kick off?
Udinese vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 28 April 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Udinese 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Udinese vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Bologna part of?
Udinese vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 34% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Udinese and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 4 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Udinese and Bologna in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Udinese's attack at 0.92x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.93x) against Udinese's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
34%
2.94
28%
3.54
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.48
1.28
Bologna xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Udinese and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Udinese and 1.28 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Udinese come into this having played 71 games, going 17W 26D 28L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.80 PPG from 71 outings (34W 26D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Udinese's home form reads 8W 13D 14L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.46 points per game from 35 outings (12W 15D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Udinese are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.49 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Bologna in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 26D 28L in their last 71 games (1.08 PPG), while Bologna have gone 34W 26D 11L in their last 71 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.06 PPG; Bologna away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Udinese or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Udinese
5
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Bologna have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 54%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Udinese) and 51% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Udinese have failed to score in 29% of games; Bologna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Udinese's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Udinese's recent games and 51% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Bologna tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Bologna finished level at 0-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.20 xG and Bologna 1.28 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.92 / defence 1.23 against Bologna attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 34% | Draw 28% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 42%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.