Pisa 0-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Inter at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Inter in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pisa have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 3W 4D 3L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Inter are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Inter half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Inter 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 52% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.67 xG and Inter 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.535 / defence 0.784 | Inter attack 1.252 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.124. Pisa's attack strength of 0.535 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Pisa's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 12 Pisa games / 50 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 35% | Inter 44%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 4.76 | Draw 2.86 | Inter 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 30% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 21% | Draw 35% | Inter 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Pisa 0.67 / Inter 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.535 / def 0.784 | Inter attack 1.252 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Inter (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Inter xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Inter kick off?
Pisa vs Inter kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Inter?
Pisa 0 - 2 Inter.
Where is Pisa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Inter part of?
Pisa vs Inter is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 21% chance of winning, Inter a 44% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Pisa and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Inter?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Inter in?
Pisa (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Inter (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pisa's attack at 0.54x the league average against Inter's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.25x) against Pisa's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
21%
4.85
35%
2.86
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.77
1.10
Inter xG
4.85
21%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.63
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 18.8 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Pisa and 1.10 for Inter, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 15D 12L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.10 PPG from 50 outings (32W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Pisa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Pisa's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 1.96 points per game from 24 outings (14W 5D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.10 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Inter in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 15D 12L in their last 50 games (1.68 PPG), while Inter have gone 32W 9D 9L in their last 50 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Inter away?
Pisa's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 2.00 PPG; Inter away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Pisa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Inter in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
0
Draws
2
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Inter?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Inter have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Inter 6-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 46%, Inter 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pisa) and 50% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Inter in 50%; Pisa have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pisa's recent matches and 38% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Inter tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Inter in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Pisa 0-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.67 xG and Inter 1.10 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 0.78 against Inter attack 1.25 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 21% | Draw 35% | Inter 44%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 52%, Inter 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.68. Form held, and they took the win. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.