Napoli 0-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Napoli at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Napoli welcome Empoli to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Napoli stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Napoli have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Napoli are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Napoli, 2 for Empoli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with Napoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Napoli trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Empoli trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 47% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 55% | Empoli 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 2.22 xG and Empoli 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.244 / defence 1.123 | Empoli attack 0.835 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.183. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Napoli games / 49 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 63% | Draw 20% | Empoli 18%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Empoli 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 60% | Empoli 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 63% | Draw 20% | Empoli 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 60% | xG Napoli 2.22 / Empoli 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.244 / def 1.123 | Empoli attack 0.835 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Napoli (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Empoli xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Empoli kick off?
Napoli vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Empoli?
Napoli 0 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Napoli vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Empoli part of?
Napoli vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 63% chance of winning, Empoli a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Napoli and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Empoli?
Record (4 meetings): Napoli 2W | Draws 0 | Empoli 2W.
What form are Napoli and Empoli in?
Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Empoli (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Napoli's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Empoli's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Napoli's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
63%
1.60
20%
5.12
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Napoli xG
Total xG
3.33
1.11
Empoli xG
1.60
63%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
2%
51.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Napoli and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Napoli and 1.11 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Napoli's recent record stands at 34W 9D 6L from 49 games, a 2.27 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 23L across 49 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Napoli have managed 16W 4D 4L from 24 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Empoli's away record stands at 3W 9D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Napoli are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.84 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Empoli in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 34W 9D 6L in their last 49 games (2.27 PPG), while Empoli have gone 12W 14D 23L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Empoli away?
Napoli's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.17 PPG; Empoli away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Napoli or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Empoli in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Napoli's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Napoli
0
Draws
4
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Empoli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Napoli 3-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 50%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Napoli) and 38% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Napoli's recent matches and 50% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Napoli's recent games and 38% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Empoli tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Empoli in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Napoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Napoli 0-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 2.22 xG and Empoli 1.11 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Napoli fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.24 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 63% | Draw 20% | Empoli 18%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 55%, Empoli 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.