Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 6D 0L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.80 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2023, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Bologna 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 45% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.15 xG and Bologna 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.027 / defence 1.049 | Bologna attack 0.948 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.182. Data: 49 Fiorentina games / 49 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Bologna 37%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 50% | Bologna 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Bologna 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Fiorentina 1.15 / Bologna 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.027 / def 1.049 | Bologna attack 0.948 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Bologna (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bologna xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.95x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.55
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.32
1.18
Bologna xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.18 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 20W 13D 16L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 18W 18D 13L from 49 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.47 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (11W 7D 6L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 7W 8D 9L from 24 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.33 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Bologna have gone 18W 18D 13L in their last 49 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.67 PPG; Bologna away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 58%, Bologna 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fiorentina) and 62% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fiorentina's games and 71% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fiorentina's matches and 62% of Bologna's.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bologna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Bologna 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.15 xG and Bologna 1.18 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against Bologna attack 0.95 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 35% | Draw 28% | Bologna 37%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 45%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.49 PPG, Bologna 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.