Monza 1-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Monza take on AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Monza and AS Roma meet at U-Power Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Monza's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza at U-Power Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Monza register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, AS Roma in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, AS Roma have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Monza's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–4 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 46% versus AS Roma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 39% | AS Roma 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 0.92 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.777 / defence 1.057 | AS Roma attack 0.821 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.247. Monza's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Monza games / 44 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 27% | Draw 38% | AS Roma 35%. Fair-value odds: Monza 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | AS Roma 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Monza 70% | AS Roma 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 27% | Draw 38% | AS Roma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Monza 0.92 / AS Roma 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.777 / def 1.057 | AS Roma attack 0.821 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.08
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs AS Roma kick off?
Monza vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Monza 1 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Monza vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs AS Roma part of?
Monza vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 27% chance of winning, AS Roma a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Monza vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Monza and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Monza and AS Roma in?
Monza (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Monza vs AS Roma?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.78x the league average against AS Roma's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.82x) against Monza's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.77
38%
2.60
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Monza xG
Total xG
2.00
1.08
AS Roma xG
3.77
27%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.6 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Monza and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Monza and 1.08 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Monza's recent record stands at 11W 15D 18L from 44 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 12L across 44 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Monza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Monza have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 6W 8D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Monza are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.64 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 11W 15D 18L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 20W 12D 12L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.14 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Monza or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, AS Roma in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and AS Roma?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 54%, AS Roma 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Monza) and 59% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Monza keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; AS Roma in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Monza's games and 64% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Monza's recent games and 59% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and AS Roma tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza and AS Roma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Monza and AS Roma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 0.92 xG and AS Roma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against AS Roma attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 27% | Draw 38% | AS Roma 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 39%, AS Roma 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.