Hellas Verona 0-5 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Inter at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Inter have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hellas Verona register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Inter in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Inter, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Hellas Verona.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Inter in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 58% versus Inter 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 58% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.28 xG and Inter 2.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.081 / defence 1.288 | Inter attack 1.337 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.322. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — the away xG of 2.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Hellas Verona games / 50 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 20% | Inter 60%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.76 | Draw 5.00 | Inter 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Inter (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 2.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Inter 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 20% | Inter 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Hellas Verona 1.28 / Inter 2.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.081 / def 1.288 | Inter attack 1.337 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Inter (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
2.27
Inter xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Inter kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Inter kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Hellas Verona 0 - 5 Inter.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Inter part of?
Hellas Verona vs Inter is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 21% chance of winning, Inter a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hellas Verona and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Record (6 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 5W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Inter (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.08) and Inter's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 2.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
21%
4.84
20%
5.10
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.56
2.27
Inter xG
4.84
21%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
10%
9.73
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
2%
47.06
17%
6.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 2.27 for Inter, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 11D 26L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 36W 11D 3L from 50 games, 2.38 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (8W 6D 10L).
On the road, Inter have gone 18W 5D 1L from 24 away games — 2.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.30 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while Inter have gone 36W 11D 3L in their last 50 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.25 PPG; Inter away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Inter in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2023, when Inter won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 62%, Inter 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hellas Verona and 58% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 46% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hellas Verona's matches and 58% of Inter's.
Do Hellas Verona and Inter tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Inter in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Hellas Verona 0-5 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.28 xG and Inter 2.27 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Inter outscored their 2.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.08 / defence 1.29 against Inter attack 1.34 / defence 0.86, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 20% | Inter 60%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 58%, Inter 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.