Genoa 2-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lecce's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lecce's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genoa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lecce in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Genoa 0W, Lecce 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Lecce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 44% versus Lecce 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 39% | Lecce 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.09 xG and Lecce 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.818 / defence 0.903 | Lecce attack 0.797 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.103. Data: 21 Genoa games / 59 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 34% | Lecce 25%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Lecce 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 60% | Lecce 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 34% | Lecce 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Genoa 1.09 / Lecce 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.818 / def 0.903 | Lecce attack 0.797 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Genoa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Lecce xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lecce kick off?
Genoa vs Lecce kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Lecce?
Genoa 2 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Genoa vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lecce part of?
Genoa vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 41% chance of winning, Lecce a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Genoa and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lecce?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Genoa and Lecce in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. Lecce (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.82x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.80x) against Genoa's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
41%
2.44
34%
2.95
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.88
0.79
Lecce xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Genoa and 0.79 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 59 games, going 27W 18D 14L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.97 PPG from 59 outings (12W 21D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 15W 11D 3L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (5W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.90 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lecce in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 27W 18D 14L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Lecce have gone 12W 21D 26L in their last 59 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lecce away?
Genoa's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.93 PPG; Lecce away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Genoa or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Lecce in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Lecce 1-0 Genoa.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 38%, Lecce 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Genoa and 28% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Lecce in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Genoa's recent matches and 45% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Genoa's recent games and 28% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lecce tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lecce in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Lecce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.09 xG and Lecce 0.79 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.82 / defence 0.90 against Lecce attack 0.80 / defence 0.94, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 41% | Draw 34% | Lecce 25%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Lecce 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.