Fiorentina 0-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Inter at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Inter 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–4 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Inter trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 50% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 43% | Inter 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 0.99 xG and Inter 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.082 / defence 0.955 | Inter attack 1.725 / defence 0.654. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.086. Inter's defence strength of 0.654 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.725 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Fiorentina games / 58 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 20% | Draw 25% | Inter 55%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Inter 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Inter (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 40% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 20% | Draw 25% | Inter 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Fiorentina 0.99 / Inter 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.082 / def 0.955 | Inter attack 1.725 / def 0.654 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Inter (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Inter xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Inter kick off?
Fiorentina vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Fiorentina 0 - 1 Inter.
Where is Fiorentina vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Inter part of?
Fiorentina vs Inter is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 20% chance of winning, Inter a 55% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
Record (5 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 1 | Inter 3W.
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Inter (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.08) and Inter's defence rating (0.65), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
20%
5.08
25%
3.93
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.78
1.79
Inter xG
5.08
20%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
17%
5.98
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
3%
30.39
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.79 for Inter, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 15D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.12 PPG from 58 outings (39W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 15W 8D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Inter have taken 1.93 points per game from 29 outings (17W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.07 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 games (1.55 PPG), while Inter have gone 39W 6D 13L in their last 58 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.83 PPG; Inter away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Inter in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Inter have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 55%, Inter 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Fiorentina) and 62% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Inter in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Fiorentina's games and 55% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Fiorentina's matches and 62% of Inter's.
Do Fiorentina and Inter tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Inter in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Fiorentina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Fiorentina 0-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.99 xG and Inter 1.79 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Inter attack 1.73 / defence 0.65, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 20% | Draw 25% | Inter 55%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 43%, Inter 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.