Genoa vs Inter – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter make the trip to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 0D 5L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Inter have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Genoa's 0, with 3 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Inter winning.
It is worth noting that Inter have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Inter — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus Inter 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.94 xG and Inter 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.914 / defence 1.104 | Inter attack 1.170 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Genoa games / 40 Inter games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 22% | Draw 25% | Inter 53%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Inter 1.89. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 22% | Draw 25% | Inter 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Genoa 0.94 / Inter 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.914 / def 1.104 | Inter attack 1.170 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Inter (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Inter xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Inter kick off?
Genoa vs Inter is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Inter part of?
Genoa vs Inter is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 22% chance of winning, Inter a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Genoa and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
Record (8 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 3 | Inter 5W.
What form are Genoa and Inter in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.91x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.17x) against Genoa's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
22%
4.50
25%
3.98
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.59
Inter xG
4.50
22%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
5%
22.15
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Genoa and 1.59 for Inter, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 10W 11D 19L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 29W 6D 5L from 40 games, 2.33 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Inter have gone 14W 3D 3L from 20 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.35 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Inter in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Inter have gone 29W 6D 5L in their last 40 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.10 PPG; Inter away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Genoa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Inter in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Inter have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 45%, Inter 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Genoa) and 45% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 55%; Genoa have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Genoa's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Genoa's recent games and 45% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Inter tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Inter in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.