Como 1-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monza at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Monza make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Como have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Como are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia than their overall form suggests.
Monza (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Monza have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Como, 1 for Monza and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 57% versus Monza 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 53% | Monza 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.04 xG and Monza 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.872 / defence 1.454 | Monza attack 0.879 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.310. Data: 13 Como games / 51 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 24% | Draw 24% | Monza 52%. Fair-value odds: Como 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Monza 1.92. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Como 80% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 24% | Draw 24% | Monza 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Como 1.04 / Monza 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.872 / def 1.454 | Monza attack 0.879 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Monza (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Monza xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Monza kick off?
Como vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Monza?
Como 1 - 1 Monza.
Where is Como vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Monza part of?
Como vs Monza is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Como a 24% chance of winning, Monza a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Monza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Como and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Monza?
Record (2 meetings): Como 1W | Draws 0 | Monza 1W.
What form are Como and Monza in?
Como (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Monza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Como vs Monza?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Como's attack at 0.87x the league average against Monza's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.88x) against Como's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monza Win
24%
4.24
24%
4.12
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Como xG
Total xG
2.72
1.67
Monza xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
4%
22.59
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Como and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Como and 1.67 for Monza, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como come into this having played 51 games, going 23W 14D 14L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.06 PPG from 51 outings (12W 18D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Como's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 0.98 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Monza in coming into this match?
Como have gone 23W 14D 14L in their last 51 games (1.63 PPG), while Monza have gone 12W 18D 21L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Monza away?
Como's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.92 PPG; Monza away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Como
1
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Como have won 2, Monza have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Monza 1-3 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Monza?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Monza see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 67%, Monza 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Como) and 38% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Como's recent matches and 38% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Como's recent games and 38% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Monza tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Monza in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Monza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como and Monza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.04 xG and Monza 1.67 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 0.87 / defence 1.45 against Monza attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 24% | Draw 24% | Monza 52%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 53%, Monza 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.