Cagliari 0-2 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cagliari at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Lecce at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lecce have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cagliari are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cagliari's 30% rate and Lecce's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cagliari, 1 for Lecce and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Lecce in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 50% versus Lecce 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Lecce 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.33 xG and Lecce 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.126 / defence 0.886 | Lecce attack 0.621 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.227. Data: 62 Cagliari games / 62 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 52% | Draw 29% | Lecce 19%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Lecce 5.26. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 30% | Lecce 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Monday 16 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 52% | Draw 29% | Lecce 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Cagliari 1.33 / Lecce 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.126 / def 0.886 | Lecce attack 0.621 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Lecce xG
36%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Lecce kick off?
Cagliari vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 February 2026 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
Cagliari 0 - 2 Lecce.
Where is Cagliari vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Lecce part of?
Cagliari vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 52% chance of winning, Lecce a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cagliari and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lecce?
Record (5 meetings): Cagliari 2W | Draws 2 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Lecce in?
Cagliari (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.45
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.00
0.68
Lecce xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cagliari and 0.68 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 16D 30L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.89 PPG from 62 outings (13W 16D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.03 PPG, Lecce on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cagliari's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (6W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.68 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Lecce in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 16D 30L in their last 62 games (1.03 PPG), while Lecce have gone 13W 16D 33L in their last 62 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Lecce away?
Cagliari's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.23 PPG; Lecce away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Lecce runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2025, when Cagliari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cagliari
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Cagliari 0-2 Lecce.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 43%, Lecce 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 30% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecce in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Cagliari's recent matches and 37% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 30% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Lecce tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Lecce in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.33 xG and Lecce 0.68 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lecce outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against Lecce attack 0.62 / defence 0.95, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 52% | Draw 29% | Lecce 19%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Lecce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Lecce 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lecce's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.03 PPG, Lecce 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.