Cagliari 2-3 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Fiorentina.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Fiorentina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 38). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cagliari at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fiorentina (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fiorentina's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Cagliari, 2 for Fiorentina and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2023, ended Cagliari 0–3 Fiorentina — a Fiorentina win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 61% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Fiorentina 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Fiorentina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fiorentina surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Cagliari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.33 xG and Fiorentina 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.034 / defence 1.199 | Fiorentina attack 0.850 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.213. Data: built from Cagliari's last 37 games and Fiorentina's last 74.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 33%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.63 | Draw 3.49 | Fiorentina 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 90% (last 10 home games) | Fiorentina 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cagliari 1.33 / Fiorentina 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.034 / def 1.199 | Fiorentina attack 0.850 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fiorentina xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Fiorentina FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Cagliari 2 - 3 Fiorentina.
Where is Cagliari vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Fiorentina part of?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 38% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cagliari and Fiorentina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cagliari vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.03) and Fiorentina's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (0.85x) against Cagliari's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 37 games and Fiorentina's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.49
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.57
1.24
Fiorentina xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Fiorentina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.24 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 74 games, going 23W 28D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.49 PPG from 74 outings (30W 20D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Cagliari against 1.49 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 17W 14D 5L across their last 36 home games, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 36 away games (11W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.46 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
Cagliari (Home) vs Fiorentina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Cagliari vs Fiorentina Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 23W 28D 23L in their last 74 games (1.31 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 30W 20D 24L in their last 74 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Fiorentina away?
Cagliari's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.81 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won Fiorentina 3-0 Cagliari on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Fiorentina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 1, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Fiorentina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 78%, Fiorentina 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cagliari) and 33% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Fiorentina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Fiorentina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cagliari's games and 44% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Fiorentina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Cagliari's recent games and 33% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Fiorentina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Cagliari's recent matches and 72% of Fiorentina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Cagliari 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cagliari 2-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.33 xG and Fiorentina 1.24 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Fiorentina attack 0.85 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 29% | Fiorentina 33%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Fiorentina 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.31 PPG, Fiorentina 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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