Empoli 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (41%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Empoli face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Empoli have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to AS Roma, who have 5 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Empoli 0–7 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
The H2H data backs the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus AS Roma 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 33% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.01 xG and AS Roma 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.758 / defence 0.916 | AS Roma attack 1.139 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.210. Empoli's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Empoli's last 75 games and AS Roma's last 75.
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 41%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.51 | Draw 3.25 | AS Roma 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 20% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Empoli 1.01 / AS Roma 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.758 / def 0.916 | AS Roma attack 1.139 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Empoli vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Empoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Empoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Empoli 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Empoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs AS Roma part of?
Empoli vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, AS Roma a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Empoli and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Empoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.14x) against Empoli's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Empoli's last 75 games and AS Roma's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
29%
3.51
31%
3.25
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.28
1.26
AS Roma xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Empoli vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Empoli and 1.26 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 18W 22D 35L from 75 games, a 1.01 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 36W 18D 21L across 75 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 12W 9D 16L from their last 37 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 13W 11D 13L across their last 37 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.52 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
Empoli (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Empoli
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Empoli vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 18W 22D 35L in their last 75 games (1.01 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 36W 18D 21L in their last 75 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.22 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Empoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Empoli and AS Roma, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won AS Roma 7-0 Empoli on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 0D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
0
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Empoli vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Empoli have won 2, AS Roma have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2025: Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 32%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Empoli) and 57% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Empoli vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Empoli and AS Roma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Empoli's recent matches and 65% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Empoli and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Empoli's recent games and 57% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Empoli's recent matches and 73% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.01 xG and AS Roma 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against AS Roma attack 1.14 / defence 0.98, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 41%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 33%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.01. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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