Bologna 3-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Venezia at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 0, Venezia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 3–4 with Venezia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Venezia in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Venezia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Venezia 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.44 xG and Venezia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.874 / defence 0.770 | Venezia attack 0.720 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.295. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Bologna's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Bologna games / 13 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 28% | Venezia 18%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Venezia 5.56. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 54% | Draw 28% | Venezia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Bologna 1.44 / Venezia 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.874 / def 0.770 | Venezia attack 0.720 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Venezia xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Venezia kick off?
Bologna vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Venezia?
Bologna 3 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Bologna vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Venezia part of?
Bologna vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 54% chance of winning, Venezia a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bologna and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 0 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Bologna and Venezia in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Bologna vs Venezia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.87x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.61
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.16
0.72
Venezia xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
4%
23.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Bologna and 0.72 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 20D 8L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.54 PPG from 50 outings (23W 8D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.72 PPG, Venezia on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bologna's home form reads 13W 9D 2L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.54 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Venezia in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 22W 20D 8L in their last 50 games (1.72 PPG), while Venezia have gone 23W 8D 19L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Venezia away?
Bologna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.00 PPG; Venezia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bologna or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Venezia in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bologna
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 38%, Venezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Bologna) and 67% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Venezia in 33%; Venezia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Bologna's recent games and 67% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Venezia tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Venezia in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bologna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Venezia 3-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.44 xG and Venezia 0.72 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 0.77 against Venezia attack 0.72 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 28% | Venezia 18%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 44%, Venezia 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Venezia's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.72 PPG, Venezia 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.